This prediction is supported by the announcement made on 22nd August 2023 by IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) and Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD) in collaboration with the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) of IGAD Member States, World
Meteorological Organization (WMO), and other partners who all confirmed that the October-November-December 2023 climate forecast shows high chances of wetter than usual rainfall in Southern Ethiopia, Eastern Kenya, and Southern Somalia.
The floods situation will further affect the state of food security in the ASALs. Food insecurity will be further worsened by the effects of two-year severe drought that the region has recently experienced. More than 4.4 million people who had been affected by acute food insecurity and poverty had not yet recovered.
In addition, vulnerable populations, including children, the elderly, women, chronically ill individuals, persons with disabilities (PWDs), and people living with HIV/AIDS (PLWHAs), face a higher risk of neglect and other protection issues during this new phase of the climate crisis. A surge in sexual and gender-based violence (SGBV) cases further compound these challenges, with the differentiated needs of all genders often unmet.
Previous Statements
Agriculture and Food Security
The intensified rainfall in the ASAL Counties of Kenya namely Tana River, Garissa, Wajir, Mandera,Marsabit and Isiolo has resulted in diverse impacts on agriculture. Farmers along River Tana in Garissa and Tanariver, River Daawa in Mandera and Ewaso Nyiro in Isiolo have suffered the complete destruction of all their season’s crop.
Local trade and economy
Local markets have been disrupted from 1) Destruction of crops and livestock in the farms; 2) Damaged and impassable roads and 3) Damage and loss of goods from the flooding of their shops. This has affected the supply of basic goods and foodstuff thus increasing their demand. There is concern over food and basic items price inflation due to these market dynamics and the challenge of accessing essential goods.
Disaster Management
There is a significant risk of isolated and unpredicted storms leading to various forms of flooding. Across the six most affected ASAL counties that the AHN members are presents, inadequate drainage especially in urban areas, have been reported. The overflow of rivers has caused flash floods forcing communities living along rivers to move to higher ground. This phenomenon has been prevalent along the River Tana in Garissa and Tana River, River Daawa in Mandera and Ewaso nyiro in Isiolo.
Water supply schemes have been submerged therefore cutting water supply to towns and villages while boreholes have been submerged and contaminated. Community Sanitation facilities such as latrines have also been damaged increasing the risk of disease.
Environment
Despite the hopeful and anticipated benefits of rainfall, there has been wide spread of destruction of the environment. Flash floods pose risks such as land degradation, massive soil erosion and landslides.
Health
The impact of flooding on health is two-fold: 1) flooding increases the risk and incidence of water borne and vector borne diseases because of the destruction of sanitation facilities (latrines), the contamination of water sources; poor living conditions of displaced people and stagnant water creating a breeding ground for disease causing vectors 2) reduced access to nutritious and adequate food due to the impassable roads causing high food prices and limited food availability. Consequently, there is a heightened risk of nutrition-related diseases especially among vulnerable populations (the elderly, the sickly, children under 5, pregnant and lactating mothers).
Transport
The heavy rains and flash floods have caused a major disruption of transportation infrastructure, particularly in regions including the Wajir, Mandera, Garissa, Tana River, Marsabit and Isiolo Counties. Additionally, reduced visibility a consequence of the adverse weather conditions has led to a rise in road accidents. Motorists are advised to take caution while driving in rainy conditions to minimize road accidents.
Ongoing Responses by AHN members and partners
According to the ECHO Daily Flash of November 27th, and Kenya Red Cross, 95,800 households are affected with 45,000 households displaced due to flooding with the most affected regions being in the North East (Garissa, Tana river, Mandera and Wajir counties).
The ASAL Humanitarian Network targets to reach 22,679 households (133,344 people) with flood response through its members who have been engaged in various emergency responses in the past.
As at November 27th 2023, the immediate and ongoing responses by the AHN members include:
KEY ADVOCACY MESSAGES and CALL TO ACTION